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#281 Superforex

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 12:31 PM

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#282 Superforex

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Posted 10 October 2017 - 11:53 AM

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#283 Superforex

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:51 AM

XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast

The strong USD and the high probability of a rate hike this year put pressure on the GOLD. However, the geopolitical situation can change everything.

The situation on the market changed last month and the upward trend turned into a downward one. Until September the dollar had been under pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, the failure of Donald Trump's reforms and weak economic statistics. Consequently, a further increasing of the interest rate this year was doubtful for investors. All these negative factors followed one by one and put pressure on the dollar. Therefore, investors chose safer assets. This led to the Gold rising in price since the beginning of the year.

This week the dollar came under pressure again due to geopolitical risks because North Korea has announced new tests of ballistic missiles which are capable of reaching U.S. territory. However, the dollar has kept at a good level due to the strong economic statistics. The latest data on the labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% - the lowest level since 2001. In addition, the average hourly earnings have grown by 2.9%, which increases the probability of rising inflation. Therefore, a rate hike in the US in December is now expected by investors with a probability of 90%.

The resistance line of the trend is under the threat of moving up due to all of the geopolitical risks, but at the moment the most optimal course would be the short deals in the short-term, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.

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#284 Superforex

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 12:08 PM

SuperForex Seminar in Kuala Lumpur

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https://youtu.be/0UprcUbgdC4

 



#285 Superforex

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Posted 13 October 2017 - 11:55 AM

Recent Developments with Oil

 

The latest events in the US, OPEC, and China have helped stabilize the oil market, but where is it really going?

To anyone interested in the financial markets it is hardly a secret that crude oil has been really far away from its usual glamour over the past few years. What started off as competition between the OPEC states (chiefly led by Saudi Arabia) and the United States exacerbated and led to a dramatically oversupplied oil market, bringing prices down to record lows. Now, more than two years later, is oil finally recovering?

First off, if we look to the United States, generally speaking, they have consistently increased their oil extraction activities. Thanks to shale oil, the US is able to extract oil in a cost-effective manner that allows them to make a profit even at low oil prices. This is why throughout the oil crisis the United States remained undeterred and kept up with their schedule as if nothing out of the ordinary is going on. Towards the end of this summer, however, the US was forced to put some of its activities on hold due to a series of natural disasters along its coastlines, which caused huge damages and disrupted the work of oil extraction facilities. This allowed the markets to ease off somewhat, but there was no reason to assume that the United States would decrease their oil production anytime soon.

On the other hand, last year OPEC member states managed to agree to start cutting their oil production in order to fight the oversupply on the market. With an unbelievably committed compliance with the agreement of up to 90% OPEC managed to decrease their exports and gradually bring oil prices up past the psychological level of $50 per barrel. They were also helped by non-OPEC countries like Russia who willingly joined the reduction effort in order to stabilize the oil market. Investors perked up recently amid news both from OPEC and Russia that everyone is willing to continue with this approach into 2018 in an attempt to restore the market to how it used to be.

Nevertheless, yesterday data on the US oil reserves was released which showed a decline in the number of barrels available. This allowed oil prices to climb up to $51.01 (WTI) and $56.58 (Brent).

In addition, China entered into play again. At the beginning of the oil crisis, China (the biggest oil importer in the world) was quite important – due to its slowing economic growth, it simply didn’t demand as much oil as before, so it left the market oversupplied. Now China has started buying oil again, though according to reports, it is not consumer demand, but rather to fill its security reserves. Still, this helped ease the market further.

Another important factor for the oil market right now is the Iran deal. It has to be renewed every 90 days and it’s widely expected that Donald Trump would not renew it this week. If he does not renew it, US Congress has two more months to decide on sanctions for Iran, which could block some of the oil supply coming from there. If this happens, supply will decrease and oil prices will move up.

According to the International Energy Agency, 2018 would generally shape to be a balanced year for oil. They report steady increases in demand, which would lead to a healthier oil market, provided the current production levels are met. However, this means that OPEC would need to extend its agreement on production cuts past March 2018, when it is set to expire. If a new agreement is reached and we do not see massive natural disasters, then next year we could finally see the oil market recover.

 



#286 Superforex

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Posted 18 October 2017 - 12:13 PM

USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

 

There is no news from Sweden, so the USD/SEK rate is depending on the situation in the USA. Investors are focused on news about choosing a new FED Head.

Over the last month the situation for the USD/SEK currency pair has not changed. The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend with signs of consolidation. The range of the consolidation phase at the moment is 8.0249-8.1862 SEK.

This week the rates were under the influence of the situation in the United States. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies amid the unstable political situation in the EU. Investors are focusing on the appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve. This week it was reported that Donald Trump would like to see a supporter of tight monetary policy fill the position of Fed Head. On Monday he met with one of the candidates for the post, John Taylor, who was in favor of active interest rate increase and the achievement of a level three times the current one. Donald Trump was pleased with the meeting, but at the moment it is unknown who will finally be chosen in February 2018. Investors are expecting Trump's decision by November 3.

In any case, the current head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also expressed there is a high probability of a rate hike despite the low inflation indicator. She said that the U.S. economy is currently strong enough and the good situation on the labour market allows for an increase in the interest rate in the near future.

The Stochastics oscillator signals reaching the overbought zone and the probability of a price correction in the near future, which allows us to make a profit with short deals. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the USD has the potential for further strengthening in the medium term perspectives. Therefore, pay attention to the point of entry 8.1862 SEK, which may indicate not only the completion of the consolidation phase, but also the trend reversal in favor of USD. On the other hand, the achievement of the level 8.0249 SEK confirms the continuation of the current downtrend.

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#287 Superforex

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 02:08 PM

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#288 Superforex

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Posted Yesterday, 14:12

NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

Speculations around the Federal Reserve and positive statistics support the USD. The NZD continues to fall.

The rates continue in the frames of a downtrend. The New Zealand dollar still cannot find enough incentives for strengthening and a trend reversal in its favor. The situation may change if the RBNZ makes a decision to raise interest rates at their next meeting which will be held on November 8. There are reasons for the increase, such as inflation growth in Q3 to 1.9%, which not only exceeds the expectations of investors, but also exceeds the forecast of the RBNZ. Given that at the moment the interest rate is at a historic minimum and has not changed for a long time, the RBNZ may revise the rate at their next meeting, although it had previously planned to do that in 2019.

 

This week the rates were influenced by speculations about who would be the new head of the Federal Reserve. Initially, it was predicted that Donald Trump wants to choose a supporter of tight monetary policy, but the latest information on the market is that the biggest chances are currently for a supporter of less “hawkish” policy, Jerome Powell. The U.S economic statistics were positive enough: the manufacturing PMI for the state of New York in October jumped to 30.2 points. The index of business activity from Philadelphia's FED also unexpectedly increased in September. There was also positive data on the labor market. All of this has led to the dollar's strengthening against the NZD.

After the publication of the recent data about inflation in New Zealand, the NZD managed to strengthen a bit against the dollar, but then the rates went down due to positive economic data and the speculation around the FED in the USA. Nevertheless, now the NZD has all chances to strengthen in the near future. Oscillators (Stochastics, MACD, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone, suggesting the expediency of opening the deals to buy against the trend to make a profit based on the price correction.

 

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